Published on September 10th, 2014 | by Sandeep Patil5
I have just one question for those who are currently advocating fresh polls in Delhi viz. AAP supporters – “What if fresh elections are held and the outcome is same/similar to the current elections?”. I am not saying this merely to be cynical, but there are good many reasons behind believing this.
First is more theoretical. Per theory – elections happen, new government is elected, it works for 5 years, and then the elections happen again “based on the performance of the government in past 5 years”. This is the most important influencing factor on any elections – both for rulers and opponents – the performance of a government in the past tenure. Since the last elections, Delhi has seen the dramatic government of AAP for exactly 49 days. And otherwise, in past 6 months nothing too notable has happened that should change the course of Delhi politics. So by and large, it should be agreed that the result of the new elections would not be ‘vastly different’ from the current ones.
Now the second reason, more on predictions. Even if we believe that in the new election there will be changes in voting trends, what is the probability that “one single party will get absolute majority”. Because, the fundamental problem about Delhi’s present political situation is not about which party can pull votes from other party’s pie; rather it is the question if one party can get seats more than sum of the other two!
I cannot make all the predictions, but one thing is fairly certain that Congress’ seat share would not further decline. Because, the party is at its’ lowest, so getting any lower is difficult. The defeat of Congress in last elections was primarily based on the sentimentalism against Sheila, and popularity of Arvind Kejriwal. Both things have subsided with time. So chances that either AAP or BJP will grab a piece from Congress’ pie are very little; instead there are high chances that Congress may grab a couple of seats from the other two – thus drifting AAP or BJP further from absolute majority.
As long as, we don’t see a chance that forthcoming election give us a clear verdict (that is one party getting clear majority, above other two), what is the point in trying elections again?
Weren’t there other feasible solutions, other than re-election? BJP tried to suggest ‘secret ballot’, AAP quickly branded as ‘horsetrading instincts of the corrupt BJP’!! That’s AAP axiom number 1, that they are clean and others are corrupt, because they say so! So this was very much AAP-like. But then, for example, AAP could have proposed for an open ballot, such that no MLA would face consequences for cross voting!!! After all, CM is leader of whole house, not just of ruling party! Or AAP could have come in terms with other parties and let a minority government function by common agreement. Of course, I can put similar expectation from BJP too, but to their credit they have kept quiet and left the matters to LG. So the point is, with some political will, some other ways could be exercised, than re-elections. But, AAP is stern on elections, elections, elections!
Now comes the question why is AAP desperately trying to enforce elections only. The answer is simple – it is not about getting a government for Delhi; it never was. The whole game of AAP was never in interest of common man, clean system, stable government – it was always about political ambitions of one Man. (Read here “Aam Adami Paradox”). Now that the man has nearly lost his political relevance, he is desperately trying to reclaim it. He sacrificed Delhi to claim India, the gambit backfired. Now he has to at least try to get what was originally his – so he is making brilliant tactical moves towards his goal.
Of course, in politics everybody has right to make comeback. But Kejriwal and co. are trying to win a battle, while they may loose the war in the process. The decision of re-election is not in the interest of common-man (whom the party claims to represent), rather it is in the interest of the party (rather the person). The last thing common man had expected from this newly launched party was that it becomes one of the existing lot. But by putting its’ own interest ahead of it’s electorate, AAP has exactly become that (or has even stooped further). It’s not that it’s leadership is not aware of it, but they are not bothered. No do I (another common man) care about that leadership. I have written this only in interest of those innocent people – real common men – who still keep high hopes from AAP leadership.
Anyway, let me end this where I begun “What would be the AAP policy if the outcome of next elections is same/similar to the current elections?” Any takers?